Predictability of precipitation in the upper Mantaro basin based on emerging long-wave radiation
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.53673/th.v1i10.96Keywords:
Regionalización de la precipitación, índices de precipitación, patrones diarios de precipitación, cuenca alta del Mantaro, evento La NiñaAbstract
Extreme events such as El Niño and La Niña modify the hydrological variability in many parts of the planet, generating significant impacts on the country's socio-economic well-being; however, the physical processes and atmospheric dynamics linked to the generation and development of extreme rainfall are still poorly studied. In the present investigation, the temporal and spatial variability of precipitation is analyzed, on an interannual and daily scale, during La Niña events, of moderate and strong magnitude, identified during the period 1998-2015, in the upper Mantaro river basin. The results show daily patterns of precipitation through the application of the Principal Components Analysis technique, for the months with the highest precipitation, in years identified with La Niña events. Finally, the predictability of precipitation during La Niña events was analyzed through the use of an index that uses OLR values measured in the Central Pacific (Niño 4) as well as in the analysis of atmospheric circulation processes that favor the occurrence. of extreme rainfall in the upper Mantaro basin.
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Copyright (c) 2021 Kenyi Glicerio Cavalcanti Cárdenas, Víctor Filiberto Aguilar Vidangos
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